Weight Editor

Customise how much each factor influences the final probability. Weights must sum to 100% per domain.

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2 presets · weights must sum to 100%

🗳️ Political Forecasts Factors

Total: 100.0%

Polling & Public Sentiment

Poll data, approval ratings, public opinion surveys

0%default: 20%60%

Political Stability & Leadership

Government cohesion, opposition strength, incumbency, protests

0%default: 20%60%

Geopolitical & External Pressure

Foreign pressure, sanctions, proxy interference, diplomacy

0%default: 20%60%

Economic Indicators & Coercion

GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade pressure, aid conditionality

0%default: 15%60%

Expert Consensus & Prediction Markets

Analyst forecasts, think tank assessments, prediction market odds

0%default: 15%60%

Media Narrative & Information Environment

Coverage tone, propaganda, information operations, public discourse

0%default: 10%60%

Using sample factor scores to show how your weights affect the output:

Polling20% × 6.8 = 1.36

Political20% × 5.5 = 1.10

Geopolitical20% × 7 = 1.40

Economic15% × 5.8 = 0.87

Expert15% × 6.5 = 0.97

Media10% × 5.2 = 0.52

Inside view probability:

62.2%

Polling & Public Sentiment20.0%

Political Stability & Leadership20.0%

Geopolitical & External Pressure20.0%

Economic Indicators & Coercion15.0%

Expert Consensus & Prediction Markets15.0%

Media Narrative & Information Environment10.0%